To succeed in the markets, you need conviction.
And there’s no easier way to have conviction than to follow my 18.6-year real estate cycle… Because if you’re confident in your investment decisions, you’ll be way ahead of the crowd.
The mainstream media has a short memory… and no conviction whatsoever.
It changes its views constantly. So if you listen to it, you’ll be buying and selling constantly at the wrong time.
My approach is to build a high-conviction portfolio and stick to my theses.
They can be long- or short-term ones, but each of my positions is backed by a system. We buy the right stocks at the right time – according to where we are in the 18.6-year cycle, coupled with expert chart analysis.
My system hasn’t failed. It gives clear signals on when to buy or sell.
And it helps me understand the economy and its cycles, and lets me share those insights with you.
Earlier this month, I wrote:
[W]ith unemployment still so low (job vacancies everywhere) this just isn’t the environment for a serious downturn. Not yet. It’s the wrong time in a cycle. Land prices just haven’t gone high enough yet.
The current cycle is going to continue at least into 2025-2026.
And I’m seeing signs in one particular market – the labor market – that confirms two of my key theses.
A Hot Job Market Signals “No Recession”
The media has been obsessed with massive layoffs started by the Silicon Valley giants.
At the end of January, Amazon, for example, announced that it would lay off more than 18,000 workers.
These numbers are staggering, but the bigger picture always differs from the day-to-day media noise.
And the bigger picture is that the U.S. labor market is almost the best it’s ever been.
In January, the national unemployment rate was just 3.4%.
And the economy added over 500,000 new jobs in January, a quarter of them in leisure and hospitality.
Mainstream media was surprised by this growth. It seems to have forgotten that we had a pandemic that destroyed the leisure sector. And that now people are starving for travel and live entertainment.
I wasn’t surprised by it. Not at all.
And the mainstream consensus seems to have started to change…
Repeat after me: we will not see a recession in 2023.
The cycle isn’t due to complete until at least 2025.
This is my deepest conviction. And I invest accordingly.
Editor, Cycles Trading with Phil Anderson