Rachel’s note: Phil Anderson has studied economics and markets for over 25 years.
But that doesn’t mean he’s only researched markets during that time.
Unlike mainstream “experts”… Phil scours the world for data on market cycles… including the commodities markets going back over 800 years.
And what he’s learned is that commodities don’t operate in annual cycles… or even decades-long ones. The story is much deeper than that…
It ties into how he forecasts the market using his 18.6-year real estate cycle – which tells us how the economy will move (and why) over time. This serves as a guide as to when to buy, and when to stay out of the market.
In today’s essay, Phil tells us how the commodities cycle isn’t even close to being over…
By Phil Anderson, editor, Cycles Trading With Phil Anderson
Commodities are cyclical…
But you have to look at cycles spanning centuries to understand this market…
For example, I researched commodity prices in the U.K. going back to 1200.
You read correctly. Eight hundred years’ worth of price data, stored in remote English churches that meticulously kept records going back centuries.
And I discovered patterns that helped me build successful businesses… and invest at the right time.
Today, I’ll tell you why the mainstream financial media gets the commodity cycles wrong.
And how to look at them to really understand what’s going on.
Why “Experts” Are Wrong About Commodity Cycles
If you listen to what the Wall Street “experts” have to say about commodities, you’ll most likely hear them talking about oil.
That’s mistake number one.
It’s the biggest commodities market, that’s true.
But it’s also rigged by government organizations such as the OPEC cartel… that try to manipulate the price of oil and increase their profits.
The bad news is oil is on its way out. Thinking that oil is still the most important commodity today is like looking at the Dow Jones a hundred years ago and thinking that railways are the technology of the future.
These experts will rarely mention some of the most critical commodities for the 21st century. Like “tech metals,” such as lithium and cobalt, or the “green transition” ones, such as copper and aluminum.
These “experts” live in the 20th century. They aren’t equipped to analyze the commodity markets. They are bound by about 100 years’ worth of data.
But back in 1200, nobody used oil. The mix of commodities present in day-to-day lives was different. Wheat, gold, and iron – yes. Oil and lithium – not yet.
But the cycles I research tell a bigger story. It doesn’t matter what commodities you talk about exactly… this whole sector goes through predictable booms and collapses.
The Commodity Bull Market Is Here to Stay
My research going back centuries says that we are nowhere near close to the end of a long-term commodities bull market.
I can’t share the exact dates with you – that information is extremely valuable and reserved for customers of my premium publication, set to launch in a few months.
But to give you a clue… just consider how well commodities like lithium held up in 2022.
Lithium has appreciated by 156% over the past year.
But you still hear some mainstream “experts” say that industrial metals are not in a good place.
They quote a possible recession, uncertainty, and risks related to China’s swift reopening… all the reasons you’ve heard countless times.
They miss something fundamental.
Commodities don’t move in annual cycles. Not even in decade-long ones.
It takes more time for these cycles to begin and develop.
I wish I could share the exact date with you here… but it will need to wait.
For now, I will just say that hundreds of years of data tells me that 2023 could be a good year for commodities – regardless of what the mainstream media says.
Editor, Cycles Trading With Phil Anderson
- Column: China didn’t drive commodity markets in 2022. It may in 2023 (Reuters)
- What to watch in commodities in 2023 (Economist Intelligence Unit)