The Dow-to-Gold Ratio Removes Investment Uncertainty

PEACEFUL VALLEY, COLORADO – Greetings from the mountains above Denver…

My family and I are on an epic camping trip around America.

We broke quarantine in Florida two-and-a-half months ago, where we were sheltering from the coronavirus with Kate’s parents.

Since then, we’ve zig-zagged our way across the South, the Midwest, around the Great Lakes, and now we’re rambling around the West.

Right now, we’re in Colorado.

We said goodbye to my friend and colleague Dan Denning (who co-writes The Bonner-Denning Letter) in Fort Collins today. Then we headed up into the mountains.

Our hosts for the next couple of days are Al and Kay. They’re putting us up at their cabin in the woods for a couple of nights.

Here we are with Al, Kay, and their family, eating chili…

Next week, we head west to Utah…

Rendezvous With Destiny

Turning over to the markets…

Yesterday, I told you about how I first discovered gold in 2002… and left hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits on the table.

As I wrote, I’m not making that amateur mistake again.

This time, I’m following the Dow-to-Gold ratio. And I’m not selling my gold until the ratio gives us our sell signal.

If you’ve been reading these Postcards, you know what that signal is…

When the ratio falls below 5 – what my mentor Bill Bonner calls its “rendezvous with destiny” – that’ll be the time to get out of gold and back into stocks.

The Whole Story

This chart tells the whole story…

It shows the Dow-to-Gold ratio, which tracks the Dow Jones index in terms of gold.

The Dow is the aggregated stock price of 30 of the largest, most iconic businesses in the world.

Gold is an inert metal. It’s the investment equivalent of hiding your money under the floorboards.

By presenting these two as a ratio, I get a barometer.

The thing about this barometer is, unlike other price series in financial markets, it doesn’t bounce around much. Once it begins a trend, it tends to stay in that trend for many years.

You can see what I mean in the chart above.

Notice how the Dow-to-Gold ratio moves in big, clear, predictable waves. Notice how it peaked in 1999… and how it’s been falling ever since.

Notice how the primary trend got interrupted in 2011, and the Dow-to-Gold ratio rebounded. And finally, notice how the ratio started falling again in late 2018.

That’s when I drained my bank and retirement accounts and put everything into gold and silver. I’ll stay there – on the sidelines – until the ratio falls below 5 again.

– Tom Dyson

P.S. I invested nearly $1 million of my own money into this strategy. But you don’t have to go “all in” like I did… The key is just to get the portfolio allocation right. That’s why I put together a special report on how to ride the Dow-to-Gold trend…

It shows you how to build the ideal precious metals portfolio, with specific percentages and the gold stocks I recommend today. (Hint: It’s split up between physical gold, physical silver, gold royalties, and highly leveraged gold mining stocks.) If you’re a Tom’s Portfolio subscriber, get the portfolio details here. If you’re not signed up yet, watch this…

P.P.S. We saw these elks yesterday. They were walking down Main Street in Estes Park…

Like what you’re reading? Send your thoughts to [email protected].

Kind words from readers, after Tom shared personal notes about his mom and dad’s health (read those here and here)…

Reader comment: I was sorry to hear about your dad’s medical issues. He certainly has that right attitude toward it! I wanted to let you know that he is in my prayers. I pray he receives the very best care from the very best people and that his body gets stronger every day.

Reader comment: Hi everyone! So loving the pictures. Thank you so much for being so sharing and open about personal travails. Wishing the parents good healing!

My one son and I are flying to Bozeman, Montana tomorrow for a week. My 16-year-old is staying home. We are looking to see if Montana is the place we want to move to next.

We are leaving NYC. I am looking for a cheaper rent to ride out my silver and gold – I will probably sell a bit of the gold to pay for rent and expenses and hold onto the silver longer, and when that ratio number and also the gold-to-silver ratio lowers, I will also go into stocks. So thank you.

Meanwhile, others weigh in on oil tankers stocks… Tom’s Emergency Investment Summit – where he shared the details behind his Dow-to-Gold investment strategy, and how others can use it, too… and gold…

Reader comment: I was inspired to invest a bit more heavily [in gold] after reading your thoughts about it. Doing well, so thanks. The last big run up years ago was a lucrative time for me, so am a believer.

Tankers, not so good. Hoping the share prices buck up with earnings. I bought right after your interview or article.

By the way, hadn’t realized you were British. You were so articulate on the interview video. You should do more of that with your economic info.

Reader comment: Hey Tom, Kate, and the fam. I religiously read your Postcards. You have a way of capturing everyone’s imagination!

I’m sure you have knowledge of – or have read – Porter Stansberry’s American Jubilee. He’s having another webcast on the subject this week. Am interested to hear your thoughts on how such an event would affect the price of gold and precious metals in general.

Tom’s response: I’ll make sure I watch it. But I can already tell you it would be very bad for the dollar and for bonds, and good for the purchasing power of gold.

And finally, others suggest more travel experiences for the Dyson family…

Reader comment: Aloha from Hawaii! You and your family must take the (narrow gauge) train from Durango to Silverton, CO. It follows the Animas River, so very scenic and both towns are worth exploring. A “must do” for train afficionados! Keep enjoying your incredible adventure!

Reader comment: The reader has it right who recommended Maroon Bells in CO, Priest Lake in Idaho, and Grand Tetons, as well as Glacier National Park, which seems to be many people’s favorite. Rugged but beautiful. My feeling is that your children are not seeing the beauty and nature’s majesty of the beautiful northwestern USA. Seems mostly just dry, dusty roads in the most spectacular part of our country.

Reader comment: Hi Tom, as you mentioned, the train route through Wyoming is easier on trains than going through the Colorado Rockies. But the route west from Denver is truly spectacular. I’ve taken Amtrak from Denver’s Union Station to Glenwood Springs.

As you leave Denver, you pass through an enormous Union Pacific switch yard. At the base of the mountains, the Little Ten and Big Ten curves turn the train 270 degrees while gaining altitude, before attacking the big grade along the front range. Then, you transit some 29 tunnels before coming to the six-mile long Moffat Tunnel, which takes you under the Continental Divide at an elevation of 9,239 feet. You go through the remote Gore Canyon and headwaters of the Colorado River, where all kinds of wildlife, including bald eagles, can be seen right out the train window. Finally, you pass through the incredibly beautiful Glenwood Canyon with its towering cliffs before entering Glenwood with its huge hot spring pools. Highly recommended if you ever get the chance.

Love your Postcards. My best to you and the family.

Tom’s note: Thank you for the kind words and suggestions! We read every message you send us, even if we don’t respond to them right away. Please keep writing us at [email protected].