Phil here…
I love receiving feedback or questions from subscribers… and today, I’d like to take some time to respond.
As always, if you have a question, feel free to drop me a line at [email protected]. Just know I can’t give personalized investment advice.
First up, a reader might be disappointed about my answer regarding Bitcoin…
Hi, I would like to know Phil Anderson’s opinion if Bitcoin has the potential when it becomes money in the future, to solve partially the speculation in real estate (or change for the better the 18.6 years real estate cycle).
For example, Bitcoin’s stock-to-flow ratio tends to be infinite, especially in 120 years. So, it could act as a deflationary force to land owners. Bitcoin would be a better store of value and liquid asset than real estate. Thanks very much and Happy new year!
– Martin
Alright Martin, thanks for writing in. You want to know my opinion if Bitcoin has the potential when it becomes money in the future to solve partially the speculation in real estate. Martin, I hate to disappoint you, but it’s the exact opposite.
Bitcoin is pure speculation because it is pure rent. I’m not a specialist in bitcoin. Bitcoin is not a store of value, it’s not a liquid asset, and basically it’s worth nothing in my opinion. So be careful how you go, but obviously this makes Bitcoin believers angry with me. I’ve had a number of arguments with Bitcoin people over the years.
That’s not to say the price can’t fluctuate and go up a lot. All I can say is it’s related to the real estate cycle. Every real estate cycle happens differently. We’re progressing into the winner’s curse phase of the real estate cycle… That’s when speculation goes over the top.
Bitcoin will be part of that. As to what happens with it, that’s a bit beyond my league really. I haven’t studied it probably as well as I should have. You may actually know more than me, but I disagree with you that it has the potential to becomemoney in the future.
I don’t think that will happen. When land price turns down after 2026 and the economy truly gets out of hand, it would be my bet that the government would ban crypto and they’d simply make it worthless. But we have to see. So sorry to disappoint you there.
Next, another Martin writes in about currency…
Hello, I’m Martin, from Argentina. I would like to know Phil Anderson’s opinion of the difference between money vs. currency. Many experts says that the difference is that money is a store of value over time (like storing energy to use it later).
– Martin
Martin from Argentina, thanks for writing in. I’m not an expert in money. You ask about my opinion on the difference between money versus currency. I’m not sure I could provide expert answers on that, so I’d like to reserve my judgment, except to say that I would see that differently to so many other people.
If the economic rent was taken for a citizen’s dividend and redistributed to everybody in the country, you wouldn’t need to ask these sorts of questions. So I think it’s a land question really in its essence, but sorry I can’t give you an opinion there.
Next, if you’ve bought a recent batch of my books, you might want to exchange it…
Hi Phil, bought and am reading your book. Table 19.2 on pg360 is not clear! That is what the book is all about. Can I have access to a clearer version, the print being otherwise faded. Also, not being a businessman, it is hard to fully understand where in the cycle we are at present.
– Soni N.
Soni, thanks for emailing in. Yes, unfortunately the most recent printing of my book I’ve heard from the publisher, there’ve been one or two problems with the printing of one or two of the graphs. If you’ve got one of those books and the print’s a bit faded, could you write to the publisher Shepheard-Walwyn, let them know, and they will replace the book. Okay, so that’s the best we can do there. I know that there was a few problems with the printing, the books have been reprinted now, which the printer did at his own cost. He made such a botch of the prior one. So we might have to get you a new book there. I hope that helps.
And you also you ask where we are in the real estate cycle at present. Two things… it’s said in some of the chapters of my book… It does go through the cycle. This current cycle began, I believe, with the land price low in the United States in 2012. It’s 14 years up, four years down, so that places us in the last couple of years of the current real estate cycle at the beginning of the winner’s curse phase.
Next, reader Theron M. asks about timing the real estate cycle…
Hi Phil, I’m really enjoying my subscription to your service – it’s opened up a new world on economics and investing that I’d not ever heard of, i.e., the critical role land cycles play in the larger economy and investing cycles. Great and eye-opening reading.
While I realize this service is focused on timing the equities markets and stock picking, since so much of that analytic work is derived from the land cycle, do you have any plans on expanding into the real estate side? I’m doubly fascinated by the prospect of once-in-a-generation opportunities in commercial real estate that should come along in several years. I intend to have dry powder at the ready when it’s time.
– Theron M.
Theron, thanks for emailing in. You’re asking a slightly difficult question there because the stock market is much more volatile than the real estate market. But then having said that, if you buy real estate at the wrong time and in the wrong place, that can be just as volatile for you, too.
The best way I go about it really from a real estate point of view is to try to be aware of the overall 18.6-year cycle. We are at the moment coming into the start of the “winner’s curse” phase. That’s the time to take buying of land with great care and try and accumulate a capital base so when we turn down after 2026, there should be some good buying opportunities if the cycle repeats properly towards 2028 and 2029.
Having said that, towards the bottom of the cycle, you think you’re all set, got great capital, but the bank won’t give you any money because they’re not creating credit, they’re not lending. So you have to take that into account as well. I experienced this back in 2009 and my folks back in 1991.
It’s not easy and I’m not sure I have proper answers, but the key to timing with real estate is to never buy at the wrong time and we are soon coming into the wrong time. So that’s the best way to try and time real estate and then try and set yourself up for good credit, good relationship with the bank for buying around the bottoms and also when the earnings stack up on the real estate you’re looking at.
Yosef S. asks about bonds after 2026…
G’day Mate, I have been wondering, when the market bottoms in 2026, what can be expected to happen to bonds? I am interested to understand what will happen both to corporate bonds and U.S. Treasury bonds.
– Yosef S.
Alright Yosef, thanks for writing in. Alright, you’ve been wondering when the market bottoms in 2026, what can be expected to happen to bonds? Well you’re probably going to have to be a little bit more specific. What market?
And from my point of view, I expect the real estate cycle, land prices and real estate to top in 2026.
At that time, usually the price of bonds is coming down, which means yields are going up and then once that happens, once it starts to become obvious to the Fed that there’s a downturn happening and they’re always behind the curve, they then do the normal thing and lower interest rates, which means bond prices would go up.
So that’s what you’ve got to try and time. The best thing I think you can do would be to read my book and then go and chart the bonds, chart the Dow, and see if you can find a relationship based on land prices going 14 years up, four down, and then overlay bonds and the Dow on top of that. I think that should give you some information to look at. I hope that helps.
Next, reader Sunny G. asks about rolling recessions.
Question for Phil Anderson – Rolling Recession? Something that has been on my mind for a year now is if we are in a rolling recession within the USA? Has this happened before in the U.S. and should we still look to land signals or industries impacted by interest rates?
I’m in Tech and there are so many layoffs in tech that even though general U.S. metrics show we are not in a recession, in tech, it feels like we are. Despite the Magnificent 7 earnings, which typically benefit from cutting jobs.
– Sunny G.
Sunny! Thanks for writing in again, I think you’re the record holder for most feedback. I appreciate it.
Recessions can be industry-specific through covid and the downturn after 2020, if you were in the pharmaceutical industry, you were as busy as anything, but if you’re in some particular service jobs, and it really felt like not only just a recession but a depression because you’d lost your job and you had to stay at home.
I don’t get into the specifics that deep in real estate cycle, I just look at real estate cycles and in the U.S., it’s been 14 years up for land prices and four years down, I date that in my book.
You’ve got to take it from there because certainly each year some areas do better than others, some do worse. Even when you do get the recession, and then after 2026 when things really seriously turn down, there are still going to be some areas of the economy, dollar stores and penny stores that do exceptionally well because everybody goes and buys their stuff from there.
So you have to try and get used to understanding the ins and outs of the cycle. I’m sorry if that’s a bit of a nebulous answer, but that’s about the best I can do so I don’t get into industry specifics.
And Kevin B. sees signs of the cycle in Oklahoma City…
Phil, an addendum to the Oklahoma City Thunder getting a taxpayer-funded commitment for a new arena: An architect recently proposed building what would be the second-tallest skyscraper in the United States be built in Oklahoma City!
Oddly, Oklahoma City doesn’t have very many skyscrapers. Nor does it really need any. But usually these types of events happen near the end of a real estate cycle.Incidentally, the proposed opening is 2025/2026.
– Kevin B.
Hey Kevin, thanks for emailing in. Yes. I’m always interested to hear from people like yourself when you notice something that’s happening in your particular area.Would not surprise me at all, where some city like Oklahoma City can get this giant enormous skyscraper that just takes over the landscape and gets built.
And you’re absolutely right. These events happen near the end of the real estate cycle that would tend to indicate the recession in the past.
The recession has been where the tallest building is open, so that’s just something to look at and I expect that to repeat, so thanks for letting me know that. I appreciate that. Thanks Kevin.
That’s all for today. Feel free to email me at [email protected]. I love getting questions from subscribers.
Regards,
Phil Anderson
Editor, Cycles Trading with Phil Anderson
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