The economy is doing really bad, right?
The job numbers just released were disappointing…
At least, that’s what the mainstream media wants you to believe.
From the Financial Times:
Nick Bunker, an economist at the jobs site Indeed, said the sharp drop in job openings combined with steady hiring show that the labour market was “rebalancing” to pre-pandemic levels.
“After years of excitement, the US labour market is ready for some boring times,” he said.
Let’s unpack this… and see how it relates to the 18.6-year real estate cycle.
Jobs Numbers Were Fantastic
In October, U.S. businesses announced about 8.7 million vacancies.
The markets expected over nine million.
So they were disappointed.
But the real picture… is great!
Look at this chart. It plots job openings since 2000.
The current number is 1.7 times higher than its long-term average and almost four times higher than its level back in 2008, when the U.S. economy was really in a recession.
Yes, they have been trending down recently, but from what levels! I’ll take this “downtrend” any day.
But the media is only focused on recent data… which is great news for any investor who wants to get ahead of the crowd.
How do you do it, you ask?
Get Some Perspective and Follow the Cycle
First, the economy is clearly doing amazingly well. Let’s just get this out of the way.
Second, at these levels of employment, the U.S. consumer will be fine and willing to spend…
Which means more growth down the road.
In the meantime, inflation is slowing down, and the markets expect that the Fed and other central banks will start cutting interest rates soon.
Did we just achieve the impossible “soft landing?”
It’s better than that.
Not only did the U.S. economy avoid a recession, but it’s in the sweet spot that I call “the Eleventh Hour.”
It’s the best time to invest in pretty much all assets, from stocks to gold.
And by the way, did you notice how both stocks and gold have risen in price?
There’s more of this to come. That’s how this stage of the 18.6-year cycle works.
Easier credit and higher asset prices, from land to commodities and equities.
However, not everything is going to be great.
If you think that you can just buy any stock on the market and it will go up, you’ll be mistaken.
Even during boom times, some businesses and trends perform better than others.
In my premium newsletter, The Signal, I’ll tell you exactly what to look at for maximum upside…
So far, my predictions about the economy and the housing market have been spot-on.
I invite you now to put my insights to work for you and your portfolio.
Regards,
Phil Anderson
Editor, Cycles Trading with Phil Anderson
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