I love receiving feedback from subscribers. I put out my first mailbag issue a while back (check it out here) but we’ve been getting some excellent questions from readers lately.
So today, I’d like to take some time to answer them…
As always, if you have a question, feel free to drop me a line at [email protected]. Just know I can’t give personalized investment advice.
First, a reader writes in about how other experts are calling for a housing crash…
Mr. Anderson, I am sure you are familiar with Harry Dent’s work and how he is calling for a housing CRASH, and is telling people to sell their home now before it is too late. You are saying that we still have a few more years left in this housing rally. I see how both sides could be correct. Could you provide input on what Harry is missing in his analysis?
– Todd B.
Hi Todd, thanks for emailing in. Yes, I know Harry. He wrote a nice few words about my book that is now on the back cover.
Todd, forecasting doom and gloom is a much easier sell. It’s as simple as that. When I first started talking to people more than 30 years ago, I promised myself I would never do that. So I call it up when I think it’s going up, down when I think down. My forecasting record is an enviable one. The 18.6-year real estate cycle is what gives me an edge.
Next, a keen-eyed reader asks about the real estate cycle’s track record…
You have said that the real estate cycle was perfect back to 1955. What happened before that and especially as it regards the 1920 to 1930’s and the crash in 1929?
We seem to be in a side trending pattern with S&P 500 in May-June. Does your cycle pattern allow for another sharp pullback into September of this year before taking off to new highs?
– Lane G.
Hi Lane, well, prior to 1955, there was almost no speculative activity after 1929.
First, the depression, then war when the U.S. government basically made it illegal and permitted only the buying of war bonds (of course). And they confiscated U.S. citizens’ gold, too, in 1933.
The 1920s, also, was an era that really only the U.S. shared in. Much of Europe and the UK was still getting over the First World War.
I agree about the current sideways pattern, though I think more up than down, due probably to the debt stuff presently, which will resolve shortly. Yes a pullback is likely in the later part of the year, but the picture is mostly up in my view well into 2026.
Next a reader asks about what to do to keep cash safe when the cycle turns down…
Hi Phil, may I ask, given that you believe that banks may be equally affected by the land/housing cycle turndown as they will have lent so much money to the sector, which banks/financial institutions should we choose to deposit any of our surplus cash and savings with, especially as some of us will not be able to make back any losses suffered given our advanced age of near-retirement?
What should we do if the bank(s) that we hold our money with also begin to collapse? What are you doing with your capital sums?
– Shalin T.
Hi Shalin, thanks for emailing in. First, I own my own home… so nobody else can. And I am low on debt now. As far as the banks go, I bank with HSBC. It’s tremendous for those that have international banking requirements. But I will be ensuring that my accounts stay below the government guaranteed amounts. So I have it spread a bit.
I’m also luck in that I have a number of smaller accounts in places where I work. And in Australia, the banks are better controlled mostly. Keep your amounts to the government guaranteed limits at any bank.
And do note, a bank with higher interest rates on offer towards the end of the cycle is usually telling you they are chasing deposits. These are likely the banks to suffer first as their cost of funding (what they pay you) begins to be more costly than their assets (what they collect from a mortgage).
Next, a reader asks Phil about the significance of “18.6 years”…
Hi Phil, I am a seismologist, and I have worked tidal correlations in volcano seismic data.
I am wondering if your 18.6-year real estate cycle comes strictly from the data, or did you know in advance that there is an 18.6-year tidal cycle?
– Steve M.
Hi Steve, thanks so much for emailing in. 18.6 is a lot more than just tidal. It is possibly one of the most important cycles of all. Have a look at “lunar node” and go from there. See where it takes you 🙂
Every Ancient past civilization knew all about what this is: “as above, so below.” I get far more into this in my premium newsletter, The Signal. You can %%[IF (([isPaid] == true)) THEN]%%check it out here.%%[ELSE]%%check it out here.%%[ENDIF]%%
Next, a reader asks about another Gann follower’s contradictory call…
Hey Phil, Mason Sexton is making a big case for something nasty happening around July 13. You and he operate off of Gann theory, please clarify your 2023 bull market view with his warning about July 13.
– Bernard C.
Hi Bernard, I always overlay my 18.6-year real estate cycle on top of Gann’s amazing work. This is something Gann never did, if indeed he knew about it as such. (Or if he did, I am yet to find it in his works.)
And as far as I know, I don’t think anyone today is doing it either.
I have found this exceedingly useful to do for the past 40 years almost – the past two cycles certainly as they turned and unfolded as it happened – and believe still that it will be useful once again throughout 2023.
July 10-13 is a time of difficult planetary energy. We could see a drop… in fact I do believe the markets are due for a breather, which is healthy and natural… but I firmly believe the big picture direction of this year is up.
I guess time will tell. So we will have to wait and see.
That’s all for this mailbag edition… if you have questions, send them to me at [email protected]. I’ll answer in a future issue.
Regards,
Phil Anderson
Editor, Cycles Trading with Phil Anderson