Rachel’s note: Rachel Bodden here, senior managing editor of Cycles Trading with Phil Anderson.
Tonight at 8 p.m. ET, Phil is going live in his second-ever appearance in the U.S. media to talk about his next forecast.
If you had joined Phil in his first appearance just three months ago, you would know people thought his bullish forecast was crazy…
It was on the back of bank failures that had people fearing another global financial crisis…
But Phil said we had already seen the lows. And if you had listened to him, you could already be tripling the return of the S&P 500.
So sign up to join him tonight for his next forecast. Then read on for more proof that mainstream financial “experts” really have no clue what they’re talking about…
Here we go again…
The mainstream media was filled with housing inflation talk for months… and now it has done a full 180.
There isn’t going to be a housing recession.
In fact, there already was one. But you missed it, so we’re all good.
What a joke…
But a full narrative reversal like this gets serious press.
Consider this from The Wall Street Journal:
Let me unpack it for you in a moment…
The Recession That Wasn’t…
Despite most “expert” claims that a housing recession would happen sometime soon, it sort of didn’t.
In fact, real estate-related stocks have been performing very well since the beginning of the year.
No one called that… except me.
In fact, if you joined me in April for my first-ever appearance in the U.S. media, you could have already closed a 51% winner on a home-builder stock.
And people thought I was crazy for suggesting we buy into that sector…
Here’s the S&P Homebuilders Select Industry Index going back to July 2022.
Can you spot a housing recession here?
Sure, it doesn’t go up in a straight line. There was a correction in August-October of last year, but since then, things have been looking pretty good for homebuilders.
Over the past 12 months, the index is up 35%.
Here’s the kicker from that Wall Street Journal article, however:
The rebound in housing is somewhat surprising in the context of mortgage rates that are still high.
This is funny, considering that historically, every time mortgage rates have risen… so have housing prices.
To be less surprised, “experts” should really learn to study history, like we do here at Cycles Trading.
Stop Thinking About Narratives and Consider the Cycle
We have seen another instance of this “narrative change” earlier this year.
Back in April, we wrote to you about how Bloomberg came out with a study that suggested the U.S. had gone through a brief recession at the end of 2022.
Again, few noticed that.
But the media used this mental trick to fix the fact that they were wrong.
If you were wrong about the future and now it’s clear that your forecast didn’t work out, make a case that what you expected to occur has already happened… even though nobody seems to have noticed.
We will hear more mental gymnastics…
The truth of the matter is we have been in a bull market for months now… which I anticipated, considering where we are in the real estate cycle.
You’ll hear about it next in the financial media: the “hidden” and “very surprising” bull market that is pretty much in full swing at this point… but that nobody was talking about just months ago when all eyes were on the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
The market loves drama – especially during the Eleventh Hour.
Here, we ignore it in favor of following reliable market patterns. My 18.6-year real estate cycle tells me more than any headline.
And I get proof that it works constantly.
Regards,
Phil Anderson
Editor, Cycles Trading with Phil Anderson
P.S. Tonight at 8 p.m. ET, I’m going live in my second-ever appearance in U.S. media to talk about my next forecast.
Again, if you had joined me in April… you could have already closed a 51% winner in a homebuilder stock – a sector that all “experts” marked for dead – and be nearly tripling the return of the S&P 500.
Join me tonight. Where will you be three months from now, otherwise?
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