I don’t mind the mainstream media as much as you might think.

These outlets are useful in some senses and completely useless in others. To get the most out of them, you need to know which is which.

For example, they can’t predict the markets even if their life depended on it.

I don’t claim to know everything… but when it comes to market cycles, my knowledge of the 18.6-year real estate cycle has given me an edge over other market forecasters for decades.

But they are useful in other senses…

Yes, they are slow to react to some obvious trends.

Inflation will be transitory… the economy is close to a recession… they will cling to wrong opinions for months because they won’t admit they are wrong.

But they have a useful superpower.

Like a magnifying glass, mainstream media can direct the attention of millions of investors toward a fact or a trend.

From wars to cryptocurrency scandals… if they are on it, they will create an impression that that’s the most important thing in the world.

And finally, something I have been talking about for years has received their attention.

The Great Housing Shortage

I’ve been saying this for months… the housing market is going to do well.

That’s what the 18.6-year real estate cycle tells me, and that’s what the U.S. housing market confirms.

High interest rates, recession expectations… nothing has been able to kill it.

As I said, it’s only going to get better.

And mainstream media is finally catching up.

Look at this header…


It admits that rising house prices could maintain inflation for months, if not years to come… and the Fed’s high interest rate policy will support housing further.

The author is absolutely right. Quite late, but right.

From the article:

My husband and I, for example, have a variable [mortgage] rate of 2.875 per cent that won’t be reset till 2031. With my second child about to leave for college next year, I would love to downsize from the family home and move in to something smaller. But the combination of a still frothy housing market, coupled with high mortgage rates and the overall tax burden associated with home sales in places such as New York, means that it doesn’t make financial sense for us to leave — we would pay more for much less.


Interest rates on existing mortgages are low, those on new mortgages are high, and selling involves taxes.

Few new houses are built, and there are regulations that prevent housing supply growth.

As a result, house prices are going up.

And I challenge you to tell me why they should crash before this 18.6-year cycle turns.

I don’t think it will happen. And now that the mainstream financial media gets it, we could see an avalanche of investor interest in the space.

More demand, higher prices, and the cycle accelerates.



Phil Anderson

Editor, Cycles Trading with Phil Anderson

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