It wasn’t supposed to happen…
Mainstream analysts expected the U.S. economy to grind to a screeching halt sometime this year.
High interest rates and persistent inflation should have killed growth, they said.
Well, it didn’t. Quite the opposite.
In the third quarter, the U.S. GDP grew at an astonishing rate of 4.9%.
Recording an almost 5% annual growth is something you would expect from a small developing country… not the largest economy on the planet.
Yet here we are.
And, unlike the mainstream financial media, I expected this to happen.
U.S. Growth Confirms the 18.6-Year Cycle Dynamic (Again)
I’ve been saying for quite a while that there would not be a recession this year.
Back in February, I said:
The experts who see [an imminent disaster] coming need to have their vision checked.
Even if there is a slight downturn, there is nothing in my research or incoming data that suggests a structural weakness in the economy.
On the contrary, my 18.6-year cycle says the global economy will do well in the near term.
The cycle isn’t over… and it will not be for years.
Watch the media change the narrative this year from “imminent disaster” to “a soft landing is possible” to “sometime in the future, we will have a recession, but for now, it’s all good.”
And this narrative change has also happened. Media outlets have moved on from professing doom and gloom to “it depends.”
CNBC sums it up well:
While the U.S. has proven resilient to the various challenges, most economists expect growth to slow considerably in the coming months. However, they generally think the U.S. can skirt a recession absent any other unforeseen shocks.
My take?
There Will Be No Unforeseen Shocks
The 18.6-year real estate cycle tells me that this is not the time for a recession.
I’m as confident right now as I was earlier this year that we’re in the final stage of the 18.6-year real estate cycle, and this is the time of growth.
I also said that the U.S. tends to lead the world into and out of the 18.6-year cycle.
So, I expect other countries to post better-than-expected economic results.
Remember, the cycle is global. But the U.S. tends to be the bellwether of what is going to happen in the rest of the world.
The latest data confirmed my theory, and I expect more proof in the future.
Regards,
Phil Anderson
Editor, Cycles Trading with Phil Anderson
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