Here is the best way to build a reputation for yourself in the mainstream financial media… the best way to look smart in front of millions of investors.

Hint: You don’t actually have to possess high intelligence or be right in your worldview.

All you need is to be as gloomy as you can.

Be negative. Look for the tiniest flaws in the markets and stress them to no end.

For some reason, pessimism sells. It makes you look smart.

Because, you know, you aren’t some rose-colored-glasses idiot… you’re not naïve… you understand what’s “really” going on…

Here’s the latest example…

Are We Talking About a Recession Again?

No less than two of the world’s largest asset managers have just announced that a recession is imminent. From the Financial Times:

“The probability of a recession for us is very high,” said Vincent Mortier, chief investment officer at Amundi, which manages $2.1tn. “The question mark is how deep and how long…”

Amundi and BlackRock, which together manage over $11 trillion, said that they were less than impressed by the recent inflation numbers and somewhat higher unemployment.

As a result, they’ve stocked up on bonds on the premise that an economic weakness is coming.

Amundi went so far as to short the U.S. dollar…

To which I say, “Good luck.”

To be honest, I understand why they’re doing it. They have built positions in some assets, and now they are trying to promote those positions to the rest of the market, hoping that more investors would buy the recession narrative.

Like it or not, this strategy could have an impact on some investors.

Plus, they get to sound cautious and responsible. Which will work well when they explain their decision-making to their clients.

There’s just one problem.

The Cycle Tells Me a Recession Isn’t Coming

These asset managers operate in an echo chamber… someone says one thing, it gets distribution, and smaller players listen and follow… until BlackRock or someone else changes their mind.

Don’t follow this nonsense.

So far, my 18.6-year real estate cycle has helped me navigate the post-pandemic market with more consistency than any macroeconomist could boast.

And the best part is I didn’t need to adjust my views in response to incoming data. The data pretty much aligns with what I expected.

As an example, when everybody was expecting the housing market to crash in March, I recommended a homebuilder stock in my premium newsletter The Signal.

That stock soared by over 50% in three months. Why?

Because we are in the “Eleventh Hour,” one of the most exciting and bullish stages of the cycle.

And I have just the tools you need to identify the businesses and sectors that have the most upside potential.

There’s nothing negative about what I say. It’s just what I see in the markets based on my decades of research.

I’m a bull in a bull market… and a bear in a bear market. It’s just that simple.

I don’t want to “look smart.” I want to help you make the smartest decisions with your money, given where we are in the cycle.



Phil Anderson

Editor, Cycles Trading with Phil Anderson

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