Stop paying attention to what the mainstream media is saying.
These “journalists” don’t get how markets work.
For example, this headline from earlier this month tells you everything you need to know about their analytical prowess:
As I have told you in the past, there won’t be a recession this year.
But there’s also something else the mainstream doesn’t get.
Copper hasn’t peaked yet.
It still has room to run. And this has implications for both the metal itself and the real estate cycle. Here’s why…
Copper Inventories Are Low… But Demand Is Soaring
Copper is a key green transition metal.
It’s used in wires and wind and solar installations, among others.
S&P Market Intelligence predicts the demand for copper will double between 2022 and 2035.
Moreover, supply isn’t catching up with this soaring demand. How do we know it?
If you look at copper inventories at exchanges like COMEX, you’ll see they are running at multi-year lows.
COMEX copper inventories have dropped from their 2018 peak of 253,000 lbs to 22,332 lbs.
That’s a 91% drop. These inventories are almost wiped out.
This is a massive catalyst for the copper price.
But there’s something else this setup is telling me.
Copper Leads the Real Estate Cycle
In my book The Secret Life of Real Estate and Banking, I said:
In other words, copper prices are a leading indicator of the real estate cycle.
Only after the price has peaked will we know we’re entering the final phase.
This hasn’t happened yet.
After it reached a local peak in March 2022, the price of copper fell slightly.
I see this as a short-term correction that won’t get in the way of the long-term bull market that began in March 2020.
Plus, as I stated in my book, war is another influence on the price of copper. And in 2023, we have an escalating military conflict at NATO’s doorstep.
In other words, the copper bull run isn’t over. And the real estate cycle continues. We know that, because the 18.6-year cycle tells us so.
Editor, Cycles Trading with Phil Anderson