Fear sells. If you want to grab headlines and an audience’s attention, scare them.

Tell them that the sky is about to fall… tell them that another crash is coming… and that they will lose all their money if they don’t listen to you.

I’ll do that too – but only when the time is right.

And now isn’t the time to be scared of the market.

It’s Vital to Stay “Cold-Blooded”

In order to read the signs that the market sends you, put them in a bigger context, and act accordingly, you have to be able to keep your emotions in check.

Sometimes the smartest thing to do is to be optimistic and patient.

It’s also the hardest thing to do. If it were easy, everybody would be a multimillionaire.

But my 18.6-year real estate cycle allows me to stay cold-blooded. It tells me that the sky isn’t about to fall.

Just the opposite, in fact.

That despite all the banking problems you have read and watched too much about over the past three weeks, we are not going to have another 2008.

At least, not yet – and here’s why.

The Great Recession Was Different

The crash of 2008 happened because of bad lending practices, bad capital protection, and a global system where the worst actors were too entrenched and connected to pretty much everybody else. And most importantly, it was a “land-led crash.”

Since then, loan quality has improved. An average borrower is in much better financial shape today. Take a look at this chart… It shows average credit scores since 2006.


Credit scores have steadily improved – far surpassing their numbers before the Great Recession.

And with soaring home prices, borrowers have more home equity, which is another major difference between now and 2008.

Banks’ capital requirements tightened after 2008. Regulators have also limited the list of what assets banks could invest in.

Contagion risks are always there, but they are limited. SVB was the go-to place for tech startups, and it felt the brunt of its collapse.

The global market volatility that followed the SVB saga was mostly emotional… as always, the market overreacts.

The effects of 2008 were so widespread because it was a “land-led crash,” meaning, it had to deal with real estate and land. Land is the ultimate asset, but intellectual property (which is what the tech industry focuses on) isn’t.

It’s All About Land and Real Estate…

Mainstream media misses this point.

It’s all about land and real estate. Growth and decline, peaks, and troughs.

And this is why we aren’t going to see another 2008 anytime soon.

I’m not telling you that the market will keep going up forever…

In fact, the 18.6-year real estate cycle tells us the exact year when the party is going to end.

And I’m going to reveal it all on Tuesday, April 11, at 10 a.m. ET during my event called “The Eleventh Hour.” Keep an eye on your inbox for more.



Phil Anderson
Editor, Cycles Trading with Phil Anderson