Week 34 of the Quarantine
SAN MARTIN, ARGENTINA – People are often reluctant to tell the truth. They will tell a pollster, for example, what they think he wants to hear… or what makes them appear smart and educated.
They know the elite regard Donald Trump as an evil clown, who only appeals to dumbells. So they say they’re voting for Biden.
Then, in the privacy of the voting booth, they pull the lever for Trump.
That’s probably what happened in 2016. Will it happen again today?
We will know soon enough.
Not Normal
Many people seem to think that this election is the most important one since Abraham Lincoln beat Democratic Party candidate Stephen Douglas in 1860.
We doubt it.
Lincoln and Douglas may have had irreconcilable differences; this time, both Republicans and Democrats have the same goal – one that is irreconcilable with reality.
That is, both are desperate to prevent “normal” from happening.
The stock market is not normally propped up by a central bank.
Government does not normally spend twice as much as it receives in taxes.
“Printing press money” is not normally a substitute for the real thing.
The elite of both parties depend on a fantasy for their fortunes, their power, and their status. Without the feds’ fake money, the stock market would fall… bonds would collapse… the elite wouldn’t be so rich… and the feds wouldn’t be able to spend so much money.
The Swamp would dry up. People would get back to work and save money. And the economy would – after a difficult period of adjustment – gradually go back to “normal.”
That would be a “stimulus” program that really worked!
Beyond the Election
But that’s not going to happen anytime soon. Biden’s team is as eager to keep the jig up as the Trump bunch.
So the fakeness – spending fake money on things we shouldn’t be doing anyway… including wars, bailouts, boosting stock prices, paying people not to work, and filling The Swamp – will continue… unabated.
And the U.S. dollar – the weak link in the whole kinky system – will break.
Yes, Dear Reader, it’s time to look beyond the election. It’s time to think about what will happen to the economy… and to our money.
And since our money is mostly in dollars, we depend on the greenback as a panda depends on bamboo shoots.
Our pensions are quoted in it. Our insurance programs are based on it. Our savings… our assets… our retirements – all depend on the integrity of the post-1971, faith-based (fake) U.S. dollar.
And here, we offer a hint… a soupçon… of what is coming.
Most likely, the pollsters are right this time. Trump will lose. Then, the Biden Team – taking over a country that is already racing towards a calamitous crisis – will step on the gas!
That will mean more spending… more money-printing… more dollars… and, inevitably, a fall in the dollar’s value.
But it hardly matters. We need to look on the bright side… the glass half full… the opportunity in the middle of the crisis.
After all, que sera, sera. We cannot fight it. And we don’t want to join it (we think it is headed over a cliff). So we have to look out for ourselves and enjoy a cheery jaunt to Hell.
Trade of the Decade
Which brings us to our Trade of the Decade. If we could only make one trade – buy one thing, sell another – to protect ourselves until the end of 2030… what would it be?
Asking colleagues Dan Denning, Tom Dyson, and Chris Mayer for suggestions has already produced some interesting ideas.
On the “sell” side, the choice is fairly obvious – we want to “sell” the U.S. dollar. It is the cornerstone of the whole fantasy finance system… the world’s most overrated asset… and the most likely to lose value over the next decade.
It has already lost 96% of its value (measured in gold) since it was introduced 49 years ago. Most likely, it will lose the rest of it in the years ahead.
That means, first and foremost, we should get rid of anything that gives a fixed stream of income in dollars.
But what do we put on the buy side? We don’t know yet, but our colleagues suggest we take a careful look at the energy sector.
What sector is the worst performer so far this year – down 50%? Which has taken a worse beating from the coronavirus… as travel has slowed to a crawl?
And who isn’t sure that the world is heating up… and that it will have to turn away from oil?
Doesn’t France already have its “transition” (from fossil fuels to solar/wind/etc.) underway? Didn’t California’s governor outlaw gasoline-powered autos after 2035? Aren’t we all going to be driving electric cars 20 years from now?
Isn’t the Biden team going to push for a Green New Deal?
Shouldn’t we sell oil… and invest in solar power plants… and Tesla?
But wait. Doesn’t the world economy still need oil… with no plausible substitute to take its place?
And isn’t the Green New Deal irreconcilable with reality?
Is it normal for a government to tell people what kind of energy they can use?
Shouldn’t we bet against the Green New Deal?
Stay tuned…
Regards,
 |
Bill
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