U.S. Coronavirus Outbreak Is About to Get Much Worse

RANCHO SANTANA, NICARAGUA – My mother (69) is a heavy smoker with health complications living in London. (She has Parkinson’s Disease.)

“If you catch coronavirus,” I told her, “you are a goner. Please stay at home and limit your contact with the outside world as much as possible.”

We’ll see if she listens.

We’re on the Same Path as Italy

My fear is what is happening in Italy and Iran right now (10,000 cases, overwhelmed healthcare industry, overwhelmed prison industry) will be happening in the USA, the U.K., and other countries in less than two weeks.

I’ve been watching the data on this disease for the last six weeks.

I see how the disease has progressed in China, Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong, and Singapore (retarded growth)… versus Iran, Italy, and now Spain, France, U.K., Switzerland, Holland, and Germany (explosive growth).

The difference is, the Asian countries went to early extremes to test, trace, and isolate, whereas the European countries are still staging soccer matches and horse racing festivals.

The United States is 11.5 days behind Italy in diagnosing its first few cases. But the virus is spreading along the same path. You can see this in the chart below…

It is NOT on the same path as South Korea (the pink line above), Taiwan, China, Singapore, and Hong Kong.

In two weeks, every major city in the U.S. could be under lockdown. And the streets deserted…

Investors Are 10 Steps Behind

Last week I cited the example of Toys “R” Us bonds. They fell from $97 to $21 in eight trading days even though it had been obvious for months the company was heading for bankruptcy.

The point I was making was that sometimes investors ignore bad news, even when it’s patently obvious.

Here’s another example: Bear Stearns was insolvent in March 2008. But the stock market kept rising until August 2008.

I think America’s attitude to coronavirus in March 2020 – after China’s economy had completely shut down and Italy’s healthcare system imploded – will go down as one of the greatest examples of “cognitive dissonance” in history.

I hope I’m wrong about this. But if I’m right, there’s a lot more economic pain to come.

Stock market investors are still 10 steps behind this story. Prepare for further stock market losses (especially in terms of gold).

Bigger Consequences Ahead

The United States has a bloated stock market.

The United States also has bloated healthcare and prison industries.

In addition to the collapse in the Dow-to-Gold ratio we’ve predicted many times, could the United States be facing imminent crises in its healthcare and prison systems, too?

We’ll see.

– Tom Dyson

P.S. We returned to Florida today. I feel like we’re running into a burning building…

P.P.S. Here we are in our little beach house yesterday. The children do their schoolwork while I write these messages to you in pencil nearby…

Like what you’re reading? Send your thoughts to [email protected].

Readers tell us how these Postcards have inspired them… weigh in on whether the Postcards are “narcissistic,” as one reader called them… and ask about the difference between owning gold and silver…

Reader comment: I’ve been reading and enjoying your writing for over a year, and like, I suspect, many people, I’ve procrastinated about writing to you. Now I have a reason.

You, Tom, have clearly achieved substantial emotional growth, and have made a remarkable transition into a wonderful father, husband, and human being. You deserve all the plaudits you’ve been receiving.

And, behind you, is another hero, Kate, of whom so little is said. (I suspect she prefers it that way!) But, without her, none of your heartwarming story would have happened. It was her courage that risked the new life she had created since leaving you. It was her continuing love for you that made your family whole again.

And, though nothing has been written about it, another suspicion is that it is her wisdom that has been behind many of the changes that you have made. I look forward to reading your family saga for years to come. Live a wonderful day.

Tom’s response: Your suspicion is correct. Kate is the rock in this family. Not only does she come with me on this crazy expedition, but she educates, feeds, and shelters three young children from the trenches. She teaches me so much.

Reader question: You consider the Dow-to-Gold ratio, which I understand – but what do you make of the gold/silver ratio which seems to trend to an all-time high? Would that not indicate that the gold price is at a manipulated and artificial height at the moment as well? All the best to you and your family.

Tom’s response: Gold has a quality that silver does not. It can be used as a global reserve asset. This quality leads me to believe that the gold/silver ratio will keep rising, and may even double from here. I have a big position in silver regardless, and I’ll continue holding it until the Dow-to-Gold ratio hits 5.

Reader comment: I know with certainty that I feel happier in my day after I’ve read your letter, and I consider it a matter of great good fortune and privilege that you write and I (like many others) benefit from your perspective. Please extend my compliments to Kate and the kids.

Reader comment: I’ve been reading the Postcards for nearly a year now. I have been reading Bill Bonner’s Diary for way longer. In your case, I just find the story enjoyable at around quitting time. Bill’s daily letter has humor, finance, philosophy, story, insight, and humility.

Both of your editorials have good advice. The Dow-to-Gold thing is brilliant. All I’ve ever done with it is buy silver rounds, here in Canada. They’re fun to stack up and play with.

I’ve never sent either of you guys 5 cents for your free consulting or entertainment. Bought no products. Read no sales pitches. Yet you both cheerfully continue to send the good word. (I’ve never been threatened with termination of the Postcards or letters for not subscribing, or something). I have to say, if nothing else – and there is a lot else – it makes you guys very sincere and credible people.

After all, you keep me up-to-date with an understanding of what’s actually going on in the world, without asking for so much as a Zimbabwean dollar. It’s pretty decent.

Reader comment: I don’t think that you and your Postcards are narcissistic at all (and I’ve met you in the flesh). I really admire your honesty, frankness, and openness about your life, and I wouldn’t read your postcards every day if they seemed narcissistic. Good luck and love to all the family.

Reader comment: There are obviously many, many more of us who are delighted and inspired by the Postcards. We’re all lost (and many of us narcissists as well). We love to cheer on the underdog, the failed man coming to a stumbling realization of his own life: What matters and how to balance the issues of financial security and personal relationships.

It has been a great help to me to evaluate balance in my life. I’ll go further and say that Tom may not be the hero of the Postcards. Kate went with him?! I would never ever have done anything like that. I am in continual awe of the woman. Best wishes and keep the postcards coming.

Reader comment: What an education your kids are getting! Wow! A parent can’t buy that kind of education for their kids. Keep on doing a fab job, my brother! Those kids will be talking about your adventures to their grandchildren!

Reader comment: A couple days ago, you published a letter where someone accused you of being a narcissist. I wouldn’t worry if I were you. You’re writing from your perspective about your experiences. In a nonfiction context, that’s expected.

Narcissism sounds kind of cute, but it’s actually dangerous, especially to the person the narcissist feeds on. A narcissist believes that people exist to meet his needs, and that it’s his way or the highway. He’ll lie, manipulate, and call you crazy so often that you start to question reality.

I finally divorced my narcissistic husband. I should have done it a lot earlier. He’s still screwing up our young adult kids. Look up the Wheel of Abuse – the narcissist does all of that except (usually) physical abuse. I would have rather had physical abuse; that’s easier to explain and to heal from.

Reader comment: I came to the newsletter and your travels late last year, so I will have to go back and read some of your adventures. However, I love the information and pictures of the places you’ve been. They help me get a sense of where I would want to travel, if/when I can make the time. Since I have no family of my own, someday I’ll look to go spend a month or so just traveling around.

Right now, though, gotta “live like no one else to (eventually) live like no one else” (in my world, at least). These Postcards give me some ideas on where I want to, and not want to(!) go in the future, and that gives me something to work towards. Keep doing what you’re doing; I’m paying attention and enjoying them!

Reader comment: I appreciate both your honesty and your stories. The Postcards and Bill’s letters get read immediately every time, together with very few others. But yours first. While I admire you for your financial savvy and your turn-around in life, I must lift my hat to your wife, Kate.

You don’t know how lucky you are: Trying to find a partner with that intellectual capacity, foresight, and physical flexibility – my respects! Personally, I have not had your travel experiences, but worked on four continents and in many countries. Your kids will start their adult life with insights that I gathered only after many years. Great parenting!

The one thought I would like to pass along, however, is that kids and young adults can learn a lot from good teachers and mentors, too… it gives them another perspective. I always say there are a thousand ways to look at Mona Lisa and you can always discover a new angle if someone shows you their way. The same is true for value and culture.

Reader comment: The look on your son’s face behind the wheel of the Jeep is priceless. You clearly made his day. I am very much enjoying the human and financial sides of your posts. Both are brilliant. Continued good wishes to you all.

Reader comment: My feelings about your Postcards have been: “Wow! This couple picked up their kids and a suitcase and traveled all over the world, and they are sharing their love and experiences with us!! That’s fantastic!” Thank you for sharing!!

Reader comment: I’ve been enjoying your adventures around the world, and your story brings to mind two much earlier cosmopolites, Richard Halliburton and Alexandra David-Neel. You (and your readers) can discover these early travelers via The Royal Road to Romance (Halliburton) and My Journey to Lhasa (David-Neel). There are many similarities between the three of you.

Keep going! Don’t let what you think you know get in the way of discovering what you don’t know.

Tom’s response: Thank you for the book recommendations (and kind words). I will buy them today.

And as always, please keep writing us at [email protected]. Kate and I read every note you send us.