How do you feel about the market?
Are you scared? Hopeful? Are you buying risky assets or diversifying into safe havens like the U.S. dollar and gold?
Well, it doesn’t really matter how you feel… or, rather, it shouldn’t matter.
The market isn’t the best place for anyone’s emotions. They get in the way, and they get investors to make bad decisions.
Instead of listening to your “gut,” it’s better to rely on patterns that have worked for decades… No emotions, just history rhyming with itself and creating generational opportunities.
I’m talking about the 18.6-year real estate cycle, of course. If you use it like I do, you’ll avoid some pretty powerful emotional roller coasters.
Case in point…
April Fools’ Days
This month has been a ride for some investors.
At the beginning of the month, they were complacent. They were afraid of missing out on the market rally fueled by the expectations that interest rates would go down.
The narrative was: the Fed and other central banks will start cutting soon. It will be good for risky assets such as stocks.
Based on these expectations, markets rallied to their record levels…
But by the middle of April, the narrative changed. Inflation numbers for March came in higher than expected, the Fed signaled that it’s in no rush to start cutting, and investors’ belief of good times ahead was shaken.
The Vix Index, which is sometimes called the “fear gauge,” hit its highest level since October of last year.
Investors are buying “safe haven” assets and insurance against further market downside, such as put options.
Are they right to be worried? Were they right to be optimistic?
None of the Above
As an investor, you don’t have to worry. You don’t have to be optimistic.
You need to follow the 18.6-year real estate cycle. It will take all emotions out of your investment decision-making.
I’ve been using it for decades. It helped me navigate the ups and downs of markets across the world.
While others were losing their minds, I stayed focused on where the markets would go next based on where the 18.6-year cycle is at.
And right now, it’s in the “Eleventh Hour” stage.
The outlook for markets is still bright, some short-term volatility notwithstanding.
The narrative of “markets will only go up if the Fed cuts” doesn’t make any sense. Interest rates are at their historical averages now.
They aren’t high. There’s hardly any need to cut.
This is what investors will soon realize. And start buying risky assets again.
Markets are resilient, and they follow similar historical patterns.
Right now, it’s not the time to worry yet.
Focus on the 18.6-year real estate cycle. It’s your best gauge.
Regards,
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Phil Anderson
Contributing Editor, Inside Wall Street with Nomi Prins