Editor’s Note: Every week, we’re featuring expert insights from contributing editor and master forecaster Phil Anderson. Read on for Phil’s latest update as we move further into the melt-up phase of the 18.6-year real estate cycle.
In the world of economics, it seems this is the ultimate “good news is actually bad news” moment.
And you can bet the reporting on it is guaranteed to leave the layman in a quandary.
Is this news “really bad” or “really good”?
Here is what I mean…
Source: Financial Times
So, which camp are you in?
Perhaps you are a saver, and the return on your money right now is the best it’s been for over a decade. A strong economy should keep interest rates and the income on your savings high, right?
Or, instead, you may view that the massive growth in employment underlines your theory on the prospects of the U.S. economy… And thus, you feel more confident in the performance of your stock market portfolio for 2024.
Or is it time for you to enter (or re-enter) the job market and get your dream job? The labor market is tight, and employees, at least in theory, have the upper hand after all. Or at least that’s what the theory suggests…
So, which view is the right one? Can all these be right at the same time?
It’s time to introduce the Phil Anderson view on all this.
Are you ready?
None of This Is as Important…
…as knowing where we are in the 18.6-year real estate cycle.
My subscribers at The Signal are well aware of this fact.
Think of possessing knowledge of the U.S. land markets as wearing a pair of X-ray vision glasses.
Such that, when news like this breaks in the traditional or social media, you can see straight through it.
So, what can the lens of the real estate cycle tell you about this news?
It’s this: It was entirely forecastable.
I have done as much since the first article I wrote for you…
I have explained that the true way to view the economy is by developing your own 18.6-year real estate cycle lens that provides a market edge unlike any other.
There is no good or bad news here!
High interest rates AND surging job numbers can indeed coexist. Why?
Because this is where we are currently in the cycle.
The U.S. land market is booming despite high interest rates.
It did not need the Fed to aggressively cut rates to do this. The opposite occurred; U.S. land prices have grown strongly during the rate hiking campaign.
The proof of a booming economy is in the job numbers.
People are working, and these employees will continue borrowing. Which will perpetuate the current cycle even more.
This is all you need, really. Quite a simple concept, no? And yet, so few understand it.
The cycle tells you that the economy is booming, the land markets are strong and growing, and thus, all you need to do is sit and wait for the mainstream news to confirm it.
And here we are.
How incredibly comforting is it to know what’s to come and then see it manifest via news articles like this…
There is only one question left now.
Have you been taking full advantage of this good news?
It’s time.
Regards,
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Phil Anderson
Contributing Editor, Inside Wall Street With Nomi Prins