Do you feel it?

The mainstream media is changing its narrative.

Before, it was all about an imminent recession. The question wasn’t whether it would happen… everybody was sure that it would. The question was how bad it would be.

Jay Powell, the Fed’s Chairman, hinted at it in his typically ambiguous way:

“Certainly a possibility”… you’ve got to love that. Never mind that you can “predict” almost any event using this bit of fedspeak.

Others were more straightforward:

Well, these strategists didn’t get full confirmation of their worldview.

Recently, I talked about a “shadow” recession that could have happened in the U.S. at the end of 2022.

To paraphrase a famous quote, if a recession occurred and nobody noticed, did it really happen?

I have been saying this for a while now: we will not see a real recession anytime soon. This is what my 18.6-year cycle suggests.

And it has helped me navigate the markets and invest for decades. Even though you may disagree, I see data points everywhere proving that I’m right.

Unemployment Remains at Record Lows

In March, unemployment in the U.S. was at 3.5%. This is close to an all-time low.

In many states, however, unemployment reached record lows in March.

Image: Bloomberg

This is despite the general doom and gloom that the mainstream media is spreading about the economy… and waves of massive layoffs, most notably in the tech sector.

Speaking of which…

Quarterly Earnings Are Stellar

Meta, the parent company of Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp, just reported better-than-expected revenue guidance and sales growth… for the first time in three quarters.

Microsoft beat analyst estimates on both sales and net income.

Alphabet, Google’s parent company, also beat earnings estimates and announced a $70 billion stock buyback.

In other words, tech is recovering.

But tech isn’t the only sector that has been delivering…

JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo reported solid financial results.

PNC Bank, a smaller bank, posted a 19% annual profit increase over the previous year.

Notably, it grew its deposit base despite the general market panic following Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse.

Both the “old economy” institutions and the tech sector have been delivering excellent quarterly earnings.

And unemployment remains low.

I repeat, there’s no recession.

Regards,

Phil Anderson

Editor, Cycles Trading with Phil Anderson